Last calendar week I attended the get-go one-half of the conference on the Handbook of Macroeconomics Volume two , organized past times John Taylor in addition to Harald Uhlig , held at Hoover. The conference program in addition to most of the papers are here. The minute one-half volition hold upward inwards Chicago Apr 23-25 , program here
Overall , this Handbook is shaping upward every bit a real useful resource. Really skillful summary in addition to review papers are a natural agency inwards to long literatures. Bad summary in addition to review papers are long in addition to boring. The conference produced the get-go kind. Most of the papers are stone oil get-go drafts , thus brand a banknote to come upward dorsum when they're finished. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 few highlights (with apologies to authors I've left out; I can't review them all here.)
Republic of Chad Jones' "The Facts of Economic Growth" is a tremendous introduction to a complex acre , nicely mixing facts in addition to ideas. If you lot terminal left increment theory amongst a sentiment that ratios are stable in addition to nosotros but climb upward amongst TFP , this newspaper volition modify that view. Equipment is getting cheaper. Factor shares are moving. Human uppercase is trending upward , along amongst its price. R&D spending in addition to work part tendency up. Misallocation has first-order negative effects on productivity , a finding from increment theory that macro should pay to a greater extent than attending to. Agriculture is declining , wellness attention expanding. Fertility is declining. Inequality , .. yep , that too. Sometimes countries converge , sometimes they diverge.
Monica Piazzesi Martin Schneider's "Housing in addition to Macroeconomics" -- no newspaper yet , alas , but await for it -- is a real prissy introduction to the form of explicit modeling interacted amongst information that they've been doing.
Valerie Ramey's Macroeconomic Shocks in addition to Their Propagation took upward the electrical flow state of vector autoregressions , stupor identification in addition to thus forth. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 slap-up integration of a long literature. Where are we? Both Valeire in addition to Arvind Krishnamurthy discussing showed lots of graphs amongst varying signs of the effects of monetary policy. Despite 60 years (since Milton Friedman regressed output on coin , amongst high points from Tobin in addition to Solow early on 1960s; St. Louis Fed belatedly 1960s; Sims in addition to Granger belatedly 1970s; Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans 1999; Romer in addition to Romer to a greater extent than recently) , we're however at it. Most of the give-and-take pointed out how much doubt at that topographic point however is. I opined that most of the "uncertainty" was virtually how much you lot convey to torture estimates to avoid the decision that involvement charge per unit of measurement rises enhance output in addition to inflation.
Gary Hansen in addition to Lee Ohanian comprehend "Neoclassical Theories" past times illustration , integrating 3 recent models they convey worked on , roofing how "neoclassical" theories tin concern human relationship for the Great Depression , the WWII nail , in addition to the surprisingly large postwar fluctuations at frequencies lower than criterion concern cycles. My discussion complained virtually the habit of unlike models for unlike facts , in addition to exogenous TFP shocks. I suggests that it's fourth dimension to sentiment concern wheel TFP movements every bit to a greater extent than than but scientific innovation identified past times balance , but rather to include in addition to independently stair out all the "wedges" that policy is inducing betwixt conception in addition to adoption. Among other points.
Jim Stock in addition to Mark Watson , "Factor Models for Macroeconomics" (No newspaper , alas , but await for it) is shaping upward to hold upward 1 of those real useful "how to" papers that handbooks tin provide. Lots of insight inwards how to purpose the Stock-Watson methodology inwards many contexts , all inwards 1 house , in addition to (to jurist past times Mark's presentation) ultra-clear in addition to accessible.
Bob Hall shut rigid amongst "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps ," the latest inwards Bob's thinking on this dependent area (other highlights are his AEA Presidential Speech in addition to Macro Annual paper.) An interesting sidelight , Bob also innovated a novel solution methodology. Write the shocks every bit multinomials , thus but solve get-go social club weather on the next tree. It's amazingly fast. And non inwards the Fernández-Villaverde , Rubio-Ramirez , Schorfheide cookbook.
Again , the other papers were slap-up too. And the minute circular promises to equal if non amend the first.
Overall , this Handbook is shaping upward every bit a real useful resource. Really skillful summary in addition to review papers are a natural agency inwards to long literatures. Bad summary in addition to review papers are long in addition to boring. The conference produced the get-go kind. Most of the papers are stone oil get-go drafts , thus brand a banknote to come upward dorsum when they're finished. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 few highlights (with apologies to authors I've left out; I can't review them all here.)
Republic of Chad Jones' "The Facts of Economic Growth" is a tremendous introduction to a complex acre , nicely mixing facts in addition to ideas. If you lot terminal left increment theory amongst a sentiment that ratios are stable in addition to nosotros but climb upward amongst TFP , this newspaper volition modify that view. Equipment is getting cheaper. Factor shares are moving. Human uppercase is trending upward , along amongst its price. R&D spending in addition to work part tendency up. Misallocation has first-order negative effects on productivity , a finding from increment theory that macro should pay to a greater extent than attending to. Agriculture is declining , wellness attention expanding. Fertility is declining. Inequality , .. yep , that too. Sometimes countries converge , sometimes they diverge.
"... 1 time countries instruct on the “growth escalator ,” skillful things tend to hand off in addition to they grow chop-chop to displace closer to the frontier. Where they destination upward depends , every bit nosotros volition verbalise over , on the extent to which their institutions improve."Jesús Fernández-Villaverde , Juan Rubio-Ramirez in addition to Frank Schorfheide's "Solution in addition to Estimation Methods for DSGE Models" is encyclopedic , approaching a mass inwards itself. The technique of solving models , curiously banished from papers these days , is a night art. There are lots of techniques. Which gain you lot purpose when? think this volition hold upward a real useful "cookbook" for modelers , which is but the sort of thing handbooks are skillful for. We had a lively give-and-take on which techniques are best for which kinds of models. How many shocks , how many state variables , how of import are nonlinearities all matter. I made the park complaints virtually identification , in addition to that maybe models nosotros know are imitation (one stupor , many series) powerfulness non hold upward correct for formal dark box estimation methods. Intuitive connectedness to robust facts inwards the information may hold upward to a greater extent than of import than statistical efficiency when the model is a quantitative parable.
Monica Piazzesi Martin Schneider's "Housing in addition to Macroeconomics" -- no newspaper yet , alas , but await for it -- is a real prissy introduction to the form of explicit modeling interacted amongst information that they've been doing.
Valerie Ramey's Macroeconomic Shocks in addition to Their Propagation took upward the electrical flow state of vector autoregressions , stupor identification in addition to thus forth. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 slap-up integration of a long literature. Where are we? Both Valeire in addition to Arvind Krishnamurthy discussing showed lots of graphs amongst varying signs of the effects of monetary policy. Despite 60 years (since Milton Friedman regressed output on coin , amongst high points from Tobin in addition to Solow early on 1960s; St. Louis Fed belatedly 1960s; Sims in addition to Granger belatedly 1970s; Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans 1999; Romer in addition to Romer to a greater extent than recently) , we're however at it. Most of the give-and-take pointed out how much doubt at that topographic point however is. I opined that most of the "uncertainty" was virtually how much you lot convey to torture estimates to avoid the decision that involvement charge per unit of measurement rises enhance output in addition to inflation.
Gary Hansen in addition to Lee Ohanian comprehend "Neoclassical Theories" past times illustration , integrating 3 recent models they convey worked on , roofing how "neoclassical" theories tin concern human relationship for the Great Depression , the WWII nail , in addition to the surprisingly large postwar fluctuations at frequencies lower than criterion concern cycles. My discussion complained virtually the habit of unlike models for unlike facts , in addition to exogenous TFP shocks. I suggests that it's fourth dimension to sentiment concern wheel TFP movements every bit to a greater extent than than but scientific innovation identified past times balance , but rather to include in addition to independently stair out all the "wedges" that policy is inducing betwixt conception in addition to adoption. Among other points.
Jim Stock in addition to Mark Watson , "Factor Models for Macroeconomics" (No newspaper , alas , but await for it) is shaping upward to hold upward 1 of those real useful "how to" papers that handbooks tin provide. Lots of insight inwards how to purpose the Stock-Watson methodology inwards many contexts , all inwards 1 house , in addition to (to jurist past times Mark's presentation) ultra-clear in addition to accessible.
Bob Hall shut rigid amongst "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps ," the latest inwards Bob's thinking on this dependent area (other highlights are his AEA Presidential Speech in addition to Macro Annual paper.) An interesting sidelight , Bob also innovated a novel solution methodology. Write the shocks every bit multinomials , thus but solve get-go social club weather on the next tree. It's amazingly fast. And non inwards the Fernández-Villaverde , Rubio-Ramirez , Schorfheide cookbook.
Again , the other papers were slap-up too. And the minute circular promises to equal if non amend the first.
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